State economists predict job growth for second year in row ECONOMISTS: Big gains expected in health care, education sectors.

Recession? What recession?

For the second year in a row, some of the Alaska's leading economists are predicting job growth.

The Alaska Department of Labor and Northern Economics Inc., a local consulting firm, both published forecasts this month that peg statewide job growth at 0.6 percent to 1 percent in 2011.

If that sounds too optimistic -- given the lack of major new developments in Alaska business -- consider that the same economists also predicted job growth in Alaska last year, and they actually underestimated it. Alaska employers added about 1,900 jobs last year -- a 0.6 percent increase.

Right now the Labor Department economists predict Alaska will gain at least 1,800 jobs this year. Northern Economics says Alaska could gain 4,700.

The difference in the two predictions is due to the different methods used to calculate job growth. The Northern Economics' forecast includes self-employed workers, unlike the state's forecast.

Also, the model used by Northern Economics suggested more robust job growth in Alaska this year on the basis of rising commodity prices -- especially oil, according to Pat Burden, a senior economist for the firm.

Burden expects all major job sectors in Alaska -- except government and construction -- to grow this year. It could even be a record year for Alaska employment, he said, with total employment exceeding 450,000.

His and the Labor Department's forecasts show:

• Health care and education jobs growing by 4 percent to 5.6 percent.

• Extractive industries, including fishing and oil, remaining flat or growing by 1.7 percent.

• Hospitality and leisure, including hotels and restaurants, growing by 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent.

• Financial and professional services declining by 0.4 percent or growing by 0.5 percent.

• Construction jobs staying flat.

The state and Northern Economics agree that the mining industry is one of the major sources of job growth. In the past 10 years, mining industry employment has grown by more than 40 percent, compared with 14 percent growth for overall wage and salary jobs, according to the Labor Department.

Neal Fried, a state economist, said Alaska was barely touched by the global recession -- the only down year was 2009, when jobs declined 0.3 percent.

"The American economy is growing, too. So we're all moving in the same direction now," he said.
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