Commercial salmon bounty forecast by Alaska biologists FISHERIES: Catch is likely to be 25 percent bigger than last year's.

State biologists are predicting a salmon bounty this summer.
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game on Thursday projected the salmon harvest to be the fifth largest since statehood at 203 million fish, up more than 25 percent from last year's harvest, which was healthy itself.
The predictions by species:
• Reds: 45.1 million fish, up 11 percent.
• Silvers: 4.7 million fish, up 18 percent.
• Pinks: 133.7 million fish, up 24 percent.
• Chums: 19.2 million fish, up 4 percent.
The state did not forecast the king salmon return because the Southeast quota is set under the terms of the Pacific Salmon Treaty, and the Pacific Salmon Commission won't release those numbers before late March.
Last year, 378,000 kings -- which at $3.44 a pound are far more valuable than any other species -- were landed.
"Over the years, we've made a lot of investment that gives us really good information -- particularly in fisheries like Bristol Bay sockeye that are so valuable," said Geron Bruce, head of the state's commercial fisheries division. "In other places, were don't have as much information, so there's more variation."
Last year, commercial fishermen in Alaska exceeded the preseason projection of 137 million salmon with more than 171 million fish -- a 25 percent bump.
Red salmon account for two-thirds of Alaska's total salmon value, and prices have been rising.
At Kodiak last year, sockeyes fetched a base price of $1.49 per pound, up from $1.11 the previous year. Prices at Prince William Sound were $2.25, compared with $1.72. For Southeast, sockeye prices were reported at $2, an increase of 75 cents per pound.
Two-thirds of Alaska's total sockeye harvest comes from Bristol Bay, and fishermen there received a base of 95 cents, up from 70 cents a pound the previous year.
Commercial fishermen use the forecasts to project how much labor and equipment they'll need next summer.
"Once we get into the return, though, the forecasts become less and less significant," Bruce said. "We go off observed data.